Goal:

To predict the next season's weather conditions, cross-check them with electricity demand forecasts, and use this information to plan the management of the electrical system. Clim2Power is a European-level research project with pilot versions in Portugal, France, Sweden, and Germany/Austria.

Teams involved:

The project kicked off in September 2017 and ends in 2020 with a digital platform prototype that will be accessible to all, free of charge. In Portugal, the Douro basin has been chosen as the basis for the study. The project is headed by the Faculty of Science and Technology (Universidade Nova de Lisboa), with EDP as a crucial partner. The Group has involved several departments in the project, such as the Sustainability Department (DSS), the Energy Management Business Unit (UNGE), the Sustainability Department (DST) and the Regulation and Markets Department (DRM), both from EDP Produção, as well as EDP Renováveis.

Process/Development:

The forecasting model under development is described as a "web-based, seasonal-scale climate service focusing on how the climate impacts the operation of the entire electricity sector, with special emphasis on hydro, wind and solar plants/farms and on electricity demand (heating/cooling)."

Besides assessing the availability of resources and the evolution of demand, the model will also study possible changes in the operation of thermal and renewable plants/farms as well as impacts on competing uses of water. The forecasts will allow end-users to make timely decisions on water storage levels and fossil fuel composition and storage. Planning for medium- and long-term variations on a seasonal basis will allow public and private organizations to optimize the management and content of energy, environmental and water policies.

EDP's advantages and contributions:

EDP's involvement in Clim2Power is part of the Group's climate strategy, which consists of four areas of action: mitigation, adaptation, innovation, and transparency. As for mitigation, the Group's decarbonization goals - with a 90% reduction of specific CO2 emissions by 2030 - have been scientifically recognized as being aligned with the Paris Agreement objective of keeping global warming well below 2ºC. The advantages for EDP are materialized in having anticipated knowledge on the next season's weather conditions, that is, a seasonal forecast (wind, sun, precipitation) that allows for timely decision-making in the management of the production portfolio, especially with regard to hydroelectric plants.

EDP Produção has provided the technical specifications and time series of hydroelectric station inflows to feed the simulations of the models being used in the project. The departments involved in the project are expected to contribute to the validation of simulation results concerning the exploitation of production centers.